A Scary Outlook - Windows Could Fall 22 Per Cent

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Revised forecasts from AMA Research suggest Covid-19 and lockdown will deliver a 22% drop in the value of the UK window and door market this year.

Although this would lead to short-term challenges and some consolidation, prospects for the medium and longer term were positive, says the research summary.

The authors of the revised edition of the Door and Window Fabricators Market Report UK 2020-2024 write: ‘As with many other construction products manufacturers and suppliers, the restrictions imposed in an attempt to contain the spread of the virus have led to major disruptions to many businesses. Growth is forecast in all sectors with a gradual build up over the subsequent 4-year period to 2024 when some sectors will have fully recovered'.

Over-capacity

While AMA forecasts a ‘V’ shaped recovery, it however, warns that many of the underlying issues which had an impact on the industry pre-lockdown, remain. This includes significant over-capacity, particularly in PVC-U extrusion and fabrication.

The research also adds that recovery will be faster in some areas of the industry than others, with significantly differing fortunes for residential, housebuilding and commercial sectors.

 “With April and May now behind us and the relaxation of lockdown controls, we now appear to be entering a period of recovery.”

– Jane Tarver 

Senior Research Analyst, AMA Research

The Leicester effect

“There is a lot that still hangs in the balance. A second wave or localised lockdowns still have the potential to exert a major impact on the industry’s fortunes," continued AMA Research's Tarver. “While remaining cautious and while further industry consolidation should be expected, we can be optimistic about the medium and longer term, through to the end of the forecast period in 2024.”

What's on offer

AMA highlights the highly competitive nature of the residential window market in particular suggesting that the fortunes of those who operate within it, will again vary according to product offer and material type.

“Ultimately, the industry is mature and in the longer term, heavily dependent on replacement demand in the residential sector,” added Tarver. “That in return is reliant on consumer confidence.

“Covid-19 has come with significant economic cost. The continuing challenge for companies – and the longer term one – is to adapt to the trends which were defining the window and door industry pre-lockdown.”

Picture: Jane Tarver, Senior Research Analyst, AMA Research.

www.amaresearch.co.uk

Article written by Cathryn Ellis
29th June 2020

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